Towards Afghan peace
A new window of opportunity seems to have opened for Afghan peace. A meeting of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) on the "Afghan Peace and Reconciliation" process in its meeting last week agreed on a roadmap that will be "stipulating the stages and steps in the process". Specifically, the four-nation group, which includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, US and China, has decided to hold talks with insurgent groups by the end of the month to push for reconciliation and end the conflict in Afghanistan.
The main advantage and strength of the QCG is that all the major stakeholders — Afghanistan, US and Pakistan — are part of it. The presence of China in the quadrilateral arrangement is of special significance as Beijing has a direct stake in peace in the region with no backlog of negative legacy. Beijing’s interest principally lies in warding off the danger of militancy spreading in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.
Since the launch of the Group in December, last week’s meeting has been described as the most fruitful. According to an insider report, the roadmap emphasizes an equal role for all the members who will now work on the basis of "shared responsibility”. This is a welcome change in approach as previously the onus was mainly on Pakistan to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table. But this strategy did not succeed because of the deep gulf of mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul.
All sides will now use their influence and communication channels to contact the Taliban office in Qatar to convince them to join the peace process. Involvement of the Qatar office is considered a must as the Taliban leaders have always insisted that Qatar is the only authorized channel to pursue political consultations, although some time back the office had distanced itself from the dialogue between the Taliban representatives and the Afghanistan government.
The major challenge is how to bring the Taliban round to start intra-Afghan talks. Some observers of the Afghan scene are of the opinion that it would be very difficult to convince the Taliban as they have not yet given any indication they wish to sit face-to-face with the Afghan government. However, the Taliban political negotiators last month suggested some confidence building measures which could pave the way for the start of peace negotiations. These include activation of their political office in Qatar, removal of travel restrictions and release of prisoners. The Taliban also want to talk to the US first to discuss the withdrawal of foreign forces.
It should not be difficult to meet some of these demands. For any real progress towards a sustainable solution, there has to be some visible, concrete action on Taliban demands like the scrapping of the black lists and releasing some prisoners. To build trust between the Taliban and the Afghan government, Kabul also needs to consider additional steps like amending the Afghan Constitution, formation of an interim government comprising Taliban representatives, establishing a consensus on the future governance system, initiating long-term rehabilitation and reconstruction in the country and providing tangible guarantees for non-interference by outside powers.
One of the main causes of the 14-year-long war in Afghanistan is the military presence of Nato and the US forces in the country. Clearly, the exit of all foreign forces is predicated on the creation of an environment that guarantees peace and stability. That, in turn, would depend on the various Afghan factions, including the Taliban, coming to a consensus on peacemaking, governance systems and mainstreaming of all those who have fought against the government or foreign forces all these long years.
On their part, the Taliban will have to pledge not to launch their spring offensive as it will throw a spanner in the works of the proposed talks. At the moment, the Afghan government is in desperate need of some sort of a formal contact with the Taliban in order to block the coming spring offensive. At the moment, the government’s position is shaky and the people are uncertain about peace returning to their land any time soon. The emergence of the Islamic State and the Turkestan Islamic Movement has further dampened expectations of peace.
If the fighting escalates in the coming months and the desertion rate from the Afghan National Army jumps substantially, the situation could become more precarious. The authorities in Kabul do not seem to have any workable plan that can be presented to the Taliban leaders. There are clear signs that the authorities have no cogent plans for a meaningful engagement with the Taliban that takes into account the fundamental factors leading to insurgency and conflict. The same applies to the Taliban who are continuing their fight without any clear-cut goal.
The Pakistan government has repeatedly made it clear that it stands for a sovereign, united, prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan which is in the interest of the entire region. For Pakistan, it is vital that the latest peace initiative succeeds, as an end to the civil war will bring stability not only in Afghanistan, but the region itself. More significantly, a political settlement in Afghanistan would contribute greatly to Pakistan’s own fight against terrorism.
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