As anticipated, the national census has been indefinitely postponed. A decision to this effect was taken at a recent meeting of the Council of Common Interests (CCI) which was attended by the four chief ministers and the prime minister. The main reason cited for delaying the much awaited exercise is the lack of availability of army personnel in the required number for escort and security duties.
The last time the Council of Common Interests met to discuss the holding of a national census — which is constitutionally required to be undertaken every 10 years — was over 11 months ago. It was then decided that a census would be held as soon as possible, but the needed follow-up steps were not taken. Now, contrary to expectations, the CCI has once again decided to postpone the holding of the census indefinitely.
A variety of reasons have been cited for putting off the national headcount. The army says that it cannot provide over 300,000 troops needed for the purpose since they are engaged in Operation Zarb-e-Azb. On their part, the provinces claim they are not logistically ready to hold a census. But the provinces also have some hidden motives.
It seems that Punjab and Sindh would want the census postponed for as long as possible since any new census is bound to throw up new figures showing Karachi’s population having increased as compared to the rest of the country since the last census in 1998. This may result in Punjab losing seats to Karachi at the national level and rural Sindh at the provincial level. Balochistan and Sindh also want Afghan refugees to be repatriated or not counted in the census because they apprehend that the presence of large numbers of Afghan migrants and refugees could skew the ethnic make-up of their constituencies.
The importance of a national census every ten years cannot be overemphasized. The national headcount provides crucial data relating to the demographic changes in a country and helps in future socio-economic planning and a more judicious distribution of the country’s resources among federating units. Conducted at regular intervals, a census allows governments, businesses and other organizations to take stock of the socio-economic conditions for informed decision-making. Without authentic census data, economic planning lacks a sound basis. A census provides basic data on demographic, social and economic variables about each person and each housing unit. It, thus, serves as a benchmark for all development plans, administrative decisions and actions, and demographic research and projection to meet future needs. The federal government also gives a share in taxes to provincial governments under the NFC award on the basis of the census figures.
Developed countries attach great importance to the conduct of a census and they hold it regularly, come what may. The example of Japan in this connection is educative. The last census held in Japan showed that the population of the country has dropped by one million over the past decade. The census results also showed that there was a sharp drop in the working population and a concomitant rise in the number of elderly people that would result in higher health costs. Thus alerted, Tokyo immediately set about taking the necessary remedial measures.
The first census in Pakistan after independence was held in 1951. The second census was conducted in 1961, followed by the third in 1972. The fourth census was held on time in 1981 but then the trouble started and the fifth was held in 1998 after a delay of seven years. The sixth census was due in 2008, but it was delayed for political reasons. In 2010, the ruling PPP government decided to hold the census in 2011 and, as a step towards it, a house count was completed. But population census was delayed under one pretext or other. On coming to power, the PML-N government had decided to conduct a census in March 2016, with the help of the armed forces, but the matter has again been shelved.
The problems that have been cited for not holding the census were known well in advance but no timely steps were taken to solve them. This underlines the lethargy and reluctance with which the political parties, particularly the party in power, have approached this important issue.
It is notable that all censuses in Pakistan in the past were held with the support of civilian agencies, except the one in 1998. It is unfortunate that successive governments in Pakistan did not take any initiative to build the capacity of civilian institutions to conduct such exercises on their own, as is the rule all over the world. We could have trained para-military forces like the Razakars and the Mujahids to provide security for such exercises but no serious effort was made in this regard. In view of the fact that we are still relying on outdated data from the 1998 census to make crucial socio-economic decisions today, it is important that the government make arrangements to conduct the planned national headcount without further delay.
The last time the Council of Common Interests met to discuss the holding of a national census — which is constitutionally required to be undertaken every 10 years — was over 11 months ago. It was then decided that a census would be held as soon as possible, but the needed follow-up steps were not taken. Now, contrary to expectations, the CCI has once again decided to postpone the holding of the census indefinitely.
A variety of reasons have been cited for putting off the national headcount. The army says that it cannot provide over 300,000 troops needed for the purpose since they are engaged in Operation Zarb-e-Azb. On their part, the provinces claim they are not logistically ready to hold a census. But the provinces also have some hidden motives.
It seems that Punjab and Sindh would want the census postponed for as long as possible since any new census is bound to throw up new figures showing Karachi’s population having increased as compared to the rest of the country since the last census in 1998. This may result in Punjab losing seats to Karachi at the national level and rural Sindh at the provincial level. Balochistan and Sindh also want Afghan refugees to be repatriated or not counted in the census because they apprehend that the presence of large numbers of Afghan migrants and refugees could skew the ethnic make-up of their constituencies.
The importance of a national census every ten years cannot be overemphasized. The national headcount provides crucial data relating to the demographic changes in a country and helps in future socio-economic planning and a more judicious distribution of the country’s resources among federating units. Conducted at regular intervals, a census allows governments, businesses and other organizations to take stock of the socio-economic conditions for informed decision-making. Without authentic census data, economic planning lacks a sound basis. A census provides basic data on demographic, social and economic variables about each person and each housing unit. It, thus, serves as a benchmark for all development plans, administrative decisions and actions, and demographic research and projection to meet future needs. The federal government also gives a share in taxes to provincial governments under the NFC award on the basis of the census figures.
Developed countries attach great importance to the conduct of a census and they hold it regularly, come what may. The example of Japan in this connection is educative. The last census held in Japan showed that the population of the country has dropped by one million over the past decade. The census results also showed that there was a sharp drop in the working population and a concomitant rise in the number of elderly people that would result in higher health costs. Thus alerted, Tokyo immediately set about taking the necessary remedial measures.
The first census in Pakistan after independence was held in 1951. The second census was conducted in 1961, followed by the third in 1972. The fourth census was held on time in 1981 but then the trouble started and the fifth was held in 1998 after a delay of seven years. The sixth census was due in 2008, but it was delayed for political reasons. In 2010, the ruling PPP government decided to hold the census in 2011 and, as a step towards it, a house count was completed. But population census was delayed under one pretext or other. On coming to power, the PML-N government had decided to conduct a census in March 2016, with the help of the armed forces, but the matter has again been shelved.
The problems that have been cited for not holding the census were known well in advance but no timely steps were taken to solve them. This underlines the lethargy and reluctance with which the political parties, particularly the party in power, have approached this important issue.
It is notable that all censuses in Pakistan in the past were held with the support of civilian agencies, except the one in 1998. It is unfortunate that successive governments in Pakistan did not take any initiative to build the capacity of civilian institutions to conduct such exercises on their own, as is the rule all over the world. We could have trained para-military forces like the Razakars and the Mujahids to provide security for such exercises but no serious effort was made in this regard. In view of the fact that we are still relying on outdated data from the 1998 census to make crucial socio-economic decisions today, it is important that the government make arrangements to conduct the planned national headcount without further delay.
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