Many important political events have recently unfolded in the country affording foresight about the coming political situation in the months ahead. These events include, inter alia, the exit of former president General Pervez Musharraf from the country to Dubai; vows by religious parties to forge a new alliance to resist the “liberal” agenda of the state; the apparent falling apart of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and formation of an anti-PPP alliance in Sindh.
All the above-mentioned political developments are of import and taken together give us a picture of the emerging political situation in the country. The departure of former ruler, General Musharraf, from the country after his name was removed from the Exit Control List (ECL) by the apex court, may not be itself a very significant or consequential event; however, it gives us an idea of the civil-military relationship as well as the strength and commitment of the federal government of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to protect the constitution and ensure the rule of law. Although the order to lift the bar on the travel of Musharraf was given by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, but the federal government could still have delayed his departure by filing an intra-court appeal against the decision and on many other administrative and legal grounds. However, the government chose not to exercise this option and let him go. Such behavior by the federal government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who had a personal enmity with General Musharraf, was not possible without prior understanding with the top military leadership. The military has been desirous that Musharraf should not be humiliated because as a former head of the army, dragging him through the courts of law was considered to be tantamount to vilification of the institution of the army. In fact, there was nothing substantial in the government efforts to try General Musharraf for subversion under Article 6 of the 1973 Constitution, for his act of staging a coup against an elected national government in 1999. Because the act of sending an elected government packing had been validated by the then SCP, which is supposed to protect the constitution. Therefore, legally trying Musharraf, for subverting the constitution, was very difficult as it would have needed trying all others who assisted him in staging the coup. Had the federal government been committed for protecting the constitution and upholding the rule of law in the country it had an option to try General Musharraf and all those who assisted him in staging the coup. But the government wanted to focus only on General. Musharraf and took him to task, which was obviously not acceptable to the military. Thus, the federal government decision to let Musharraf go is aimed at improving its strained relations with the military. Whether this would be of any help or not only time will tell.
Another very significant development that is shaping up is the agreement between two of the largest clerical parties, the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), to revive a religious parties alliance akin to the defunct Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The common ground for the clerical parties at the moment is the number of steps and statements by the federal and the Punjab provincial government. This includes the passage of a women’s protection bill by the Punjab legislature. The law is very severe on husbands and provides for their incarceration and reprimanding in case they beat up their wives. The clerical parties think the law is against Islamic Shariah, which gives husbands a superior position vis-Ã -vis their wives. The JI and JUI-F are also castigating the federal government for executing, Mumtaz Qadri, the killer of the former Punjab governor Salman Taseer. However, the JUI-F and the JI, both having the same sectarian background, did nothing to fight the legal battle for Qadri, who hailed from the Barelvi sect of Muslims. But now both want to capitalize upon the enraged religious sentiments among people due to the execution of Qadri, for their respective political mileage. Although the JUI-F is presently part of the federal government of the PML-N and the JI is a coalition partner of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government in the Khyber Paktunkhwa province (KP), but both have been playing the role of second fiddle. Therefore, they have yet again realized that they only have a realistic chance to have a lion’s share in elected governments in provinces, if not at the centre, by forging an alliance. This realization has dawned upon them as there is a context to it. Because the only time the religious parties were able to form a government in a province was when they contested elections as an alliance in 2002, as the MMA and won a majority in the KPK province and ruled it for five years.
So, as the country is midway to the next elections, the religious parties are making adjustments and trying to prepare themselves for the next elections to somehow gain political power in a province or two. Moreover, by having an alliance these parties think they could win maximum number of national assembly seats and in this way they would be in the best bargaining position with a party winning majority in the next elections. With religious parties discredited due to their silent support to militant terrorist groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), they are trying to revive themselves by using issues like the women’s protection bill and execution of Mumtaz Qadri as rallying points.
With the coming of the MQM renegades, Mustapha Kamal and Anis Kaimkhani, and their announcement of forming a new party and accusing the MQM of having old links with India’s intelligence agency RAW, it seems the beginning of the weakening of the MQM has set in. A couple of MQM sitting members of the Sindh Assembly have also joined Kamal and Kaimkhani, raising questions on the future of the MQM and the Sindh Assembly, where the PPP has a thin majority. An anti-PPP alliance has also been formed by several Sindhi nationalist parties, led by Pakistan Muslim League-Functional.
All the above developments show that the federal and the Punjab governments would be facing increasing difficulties in the months ahead. Moreover, the PPP in Sindh and, generally, all over the country and the MQM in Sindh would also receive setbacks. The only political party, according to many political gurus, which is gaining out of this situation is the PTI of Imran Khan. Because the party, unlike the PPP government in Sindh and the PML-N governments at the centre, Punjab and Balochistan, has been running the government of KPK quite successfully despite it being the most difficult province to govern because of terrorism and extremism by the Taliban groups and the burden of the entire FATA and around four million Afghan refugees. The PTI has also successfully transferred financial and administrative powers to local governments in KPK, several headed by the opposition parties. So seeing difficulties increasing for the PML-N, PPP and MQM — all strong opponents of the PTI — the latter may also launch its own movement against the existing set-up dominated by these parties. If this happens, the existing political set-up may not withstand the pressure and may crumble before its tenure, particularly when many of the leading lights of the PML-N and the PPP have several NAB cases against them.
All the above-mentioned political developments are of import and taken together give us a picture of the emerging political situation in the country. The departure of former ruler, General Musharraf, from the country after his name was removed from the Exit Control List (ECL) by the apex court, may not be itself a very significant or consequential event; however, it gives us an idea of the civil-military relationship as well as the strength and commitment of the federal government of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to protect the constitution and ensure the rule of law. Although the order to lift the bar on the travel of Musharraf was given by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, but the federal government could still have delayed his departure by filing an intra-court appeal against the decision and on many other administrative and legal grounds. However, the government chose not to exercise this option and let him go. Such behavior by the federal government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who had a personal enmity with General Musharraf, was not possible without prior understanding with the top military leadership. The military has been desirous that Musharraf should not be humiliated because as a former head of the army, dragging him through the courts of law was considered to be tantamount to vilification of the institution of the army. In fact, there was nothing substantial in the government efforts to try General Musharraf for subversion under Article 6 of the 1973 Constitution, for his act of staging a coup against an elected national government in 1999. Because the act of sending an elected government packing had been validated by the then SCP, which is supposed to protect the constitution. Therefore, legally trying Musharraf, for subverting the constitution, was very difficult as it would have needed trying all others who assisted him in staging the coup. Had the federal government been committed for protecting the constitution and upholding the rule of law in the country it had an option to try General Musharraf and all those who assisted him in staging the coup. But the government wanted to focus only on General. Musharraf and took him to task, which was obviously not acceptable to the military. Thus, the federal government decision to let Musharraf go is aimed at improving its strained relations with the military. Whether this would be of any help or not only time will tell.
Another very significant development that is shaping up is the agreement between two of the largest clerical parties, the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), to revive a religious parties alliance akin to the defunct Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The common ground for the clerical parties at the moment is the number of steps and statements by the federal and the Punjab provincial government. This includes the passage of a women’s protection bill by the Punjab legislature. The law is very severe on husbands and provides for their incarceration and reprimanding in case they beat up their wives. The clerical parties think the law is against Islamic Shariah, which gives husbands a superior position vis-Ã -vis their wives. The JI and JUI-F are also castigating the federal government for executing, Mumtaz Qadri, the killer of the former Punjab governor Salman Taseer. However, the JUI-F and the JI, both having the same sectarian background, did nothing to fight the legal battle for Qadri, who hailed from the Barelvi sect of Muslims. But now both want to capitalize upon the enraged religious sentiments among people due to the execution of Qadri, for their respective political mileage. Although the JUI-F is presently part of the federal government of the PML-N and the JI is a coalition partner of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government in the Khyber Paktunkhwa province (KP), but both have been playing the role of second fiddle. Therefore, they have yet again realized that they only have a realistic chance to have a lion’s share in elected governments in provinces, if not at the centre, by forging an alliance. This realization has dawned upon them as there is a context to it. Because the only time the religious parties were able to form a government in a province was when they contested elections as an alliance in 2002, as the MMA and won a majority in the KPK province and ruled it for five years.
So, as the country is midway to the next elections, the religious parties are making adjustments and trying to prepare themselves for the next elections to somehow gain political power in a province or two. Moreover, by having an alliance these parties think they could win maximum number of national assembly seats and in this way they would be in the best bargaining position with a party winning majority in the next elections. With religious parties discredited due to their silent support to militant terrorist groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), they are trying to revive themselves by using issues like the women’s protection bill and execution of Mumtaz Qadri as rallying points.
With the coming of the MQM renegades, Mustapha Kamal and Anis Kaimkhani, and their announcement of forming a new party and accusing the MQM of having old links with India’s intelligence agency RAW, it seems the beginning of the weakening of the MQM has set in. A couple of MQM sitting members of the Sindh Assembly have also joined Kamal and Kaimkhani, raising questions on the future of the MQM and the Sindh Assembly, where the PPP has a thin majority. An anti-PPP alliance has also been formed by several Sindhi nationalist parties, led by Pakistan Muslim League-Functional.
All the above developments show that the federal and the Punjab governments would be facing increasing difficulties in the months ahead. Moreover, the PPP in Sindh and, generally, all over the country and the MQM in Sindh would also receive setbacks. The only political party, according to many political gurus, which is gaining out of this situation is the PTI of Imran Khan. Because the party, unlike the PPP government in Sindh and the PML-N governments at the centre, Punjab and Balochistan, has been running the government of KPK quite successfully despite it being the most difficult province to govern because of terrorism and extremism by the Taliban groups and the burden of the entire FATA and around four million Afghan refugees. The PTI has also successfully transferred financial and administrative powers to local governments in KPK, several headed by the opposition parties. So seeing difficulties increasing for the PML-N, PPP and MQM — all strong opponents of the PTI — the latter may also launch its own movement against the existing set-up dominated by these parties. If this happens, the existing political set-up may not withstand the pressure and may crumble before its tenure, particularly when many of the leading lights of the PML-N and the PPP have several NAB cases against them.
Post a Comment