Some political scenarios

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan has warned of a public march on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Raiwind Palace if a fair probe into the Panama leaks was not launched under the Chief Justice of Pakistan. It will compound problems for the prime minister and his family who are already facing serious corruption charges.
Addressing a press conference at his Bani Gala residence, he said he would lead the masses towards Raiwind this time, instead of D Chowk in Islamabad, where he had staged a sit-in to press for investigations into alleged polls rigging in 2014. “We demand a fair investigation, headed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan and comprising international auditors and forensic experts, into the allegations against the children of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. There are four major allegations against the prime minister, ie, money laundering, tax evasion, hiding assets and misleading the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP),” he added.
It appears the Panama leaks allegations have also divided the Sharif family. Only the prime minister, his children and ministers are defending the charges, though without much success. Other family members are conspicuous by their absence. Few days ago, addressing a seminar on the metro train in Lahore, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif said his body should be exhumed and hanged if corruption proved in his mega development projects even after his death. He did not utter a word in defence of his elder brother or his children.
Earlier, Tehmina Durrani, wife of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, urged the family of her husband to return all foreign and local wealth to the nation. Durrani, also a social activist, expressed her views in a series of tweets on social media. She said that according to her point of view, keeping offshore accounts was an unethical act. “Doing something against the law is illegal while unethical acts are similar to selling your soul, the latter being a more grave offence,” she added and advised the Sharif family that the only way they could distance themselves from the allegations was to bring back the money saved in offshore accounts and foreign countries to Pakistan. She also advised the family to opt for a simpler way of life by returning the wealth to the nation and keeping Quaid-e-Azam as an example.
Tough neither her husband nor his family has reacted to the harsh criticism, yet the statement is being discussed among political circles. Some PML-N workers believe Tehmina Durrani had expressed her feelings with the consent of her husband. According to media reports, the party has been divided into three factions. Shahbaz Sharif, his son Hamza Shahbaz Sharif, Tehmina Durrani and Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah lead their faction. Another group is led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam Nawaz, first lady Kulsoom Nawaz Sharif and State Minister for Water and Power ChaudhryAbid Sher Ali. The third faction is controlled by Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. Their war started during sit-ins of the PTI and the PAT at D Chowk, Islamabad, when Nawaz Sharif persuaded Shahbaz Sharif to step down to save his government at the Centre. However, it is reported that Tehmina Durrani had convinced Hamza Shahbaz Sharif that if his father resigned from the office of chief minister, it would pave the way for Maryam Nawaz to enter into the corridors of power and his politics would suffer. After it, the chief minister refused to resign.
It is believed that a cold war between Hamza and his cousin Maryam has divided the family. The next phase of the tug of war was seen in the local bodies elections in Faisalabad, where Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah and Hamza Shahbaz, through the defeat of Chaudhry Sher Ali and his sons, gave a message to Maryam Nawaz and Kulsoom Nawaz. Their differences also surfaced in a re-election in NA-122 in Lahore, where the prime minister and his cabinet members were canvassing for the success of Ayaz Sadiq and Mohsin Latif, nephew of Kulsoom Nawaz Sharif, for a provincial assembly seat, but Mohsin Latif lost the election due to behind-the-scenes efforts of Hamza Shahbaz and Rana Sanaullah.
Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif may be fancying his chances as the next prime minister of the country, if Imran Khan mounts pressure on his elder brother to step down. Marching on the Raiwind Palace was his final plan during the days of the sit-in at Islamabad. Some critics believe Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s relations with the establishment would also turn sour after more leaks about his family’s foreign assets and widespread corruption. Public protests will also grow under the leadership of Imran Khan. In the situation, elections could be held in 2017. However, if the prime minister steps down under pressure, the next election will be difficult for his party. As such, Shahbaz Sharif may not be able to lead a fractured party to win. It is the third and the final term of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. If he completes his term, it may offer a chance to his younger brother to become the prime minister of Pakistan. In the scenario, the ruling party may also retain its power in the Punjab. If Nawaz Sharif has to leave early, it will also dim the chances of the success of his party in the next polls. It will be a great achievement even if his party retains power in the Punjab.
The allegations of corruption against the ruling party have once again revived the PTI of Imran Khan. The ruling party may face more divisions in the coming days. The PPP has already been reeling under a massive defeat in the last general election and by-polls in the Punjab. Imran Khan or a member of his party could be the next prime minister of Pakistan, if early elections are called in the country.
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