The first explanation for a few large-scale terrorist attacks in the country apparently seems to be the effectiveness of the military offensive Zarb-e-Azb in North Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is important to note that the Pakistani military has so far cleared most of the Shawal Valley in the last phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. The remotest Shawal Valley of the NWA has been the only area in the FATA which remained out of bounds to the state writ for almost a decade since the emergence of disparate Pakistani Taliban groups culminating in the formation of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in December 2007. Even before it the state never tried to establish its writ in the Shawal Valley rather it did not feel the need to do so.
In April this year, the Inter-Public Services Relations (ISPR) said that at least 252 terrorists had been killed by Pakistan troops. Since the launch of the last phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in February this year, troops also cleared 640 square kilometers area of Shawal. The ISPR had furthermore declared that the army restored government's writ in FATA, destroying militant hideouts and seizing huge caches of arms and ammunition during the Operation Zarb-e-Azb that was launched in June 2014. In total, the Pakistani military has retaken 4304 square kilometers of area and cleared it of terrorists. This is a great achievement as even the British colonial rulers' various military campaigns in the FATA could never establish the imperial power writ in the FATA, particularly the Waziristan region. However, one factor here is important to be noticed that unlike the British rulers, which did not have the local public support, the Pakistani military has had enjoyed large-scale people support in the FATA. Nevertheless, it should also not be forgotten and in order to keep the record straight that it had partially been the result of residents of the FATA support and sympathies that the Taliban and their foreign affiliates, like Al Qaeda and Uzbeks, got themselves entrenched in the FATA, especifically Waziristan regions. But it was after the dwellers of FATA started facing atrocities at the hands of the Taliban and their foreign affiliates that most of the people realized their mistakes of supporting and sympathizing with the militants and terrorists. Albeit, it was too late and most of the people had to leave their ancestral abodes to save their lives and pave the way for the state action.
The success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb has been acknowledged by independent sources. These official and unofficial sources are of the view that the command and control structure of the Taliban terrorists has been completely shattered and the militant and terrorist groups have got lacerated due to the operation. Independent sources are also of the view that most of the TTP and its foreign affiliates have fled their largest hideout in Pakistan ― North Waziristan ― to go to Afghanistan, where a large number of the Pakistani Taliban and their foreign affiliates, like Uzbek militants, have been courted by the Afghan intelligence National Directorate of Security (NDS) to be used against Pakistan. However, despite this official Afghan support Pakistani Taliban groups could not stage many large-scale terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The NDS and the rest of Afghan security establishment unnecessary focus on creating trouble in Pakistan has resulted in glossing over of their primary responsibility of fighting the Afghan Taliban insurgency and establishing the state writ. Resultantly, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) have been totally in disarray with the Afghan Taliban fighters bagging more and more state territory to the chagrin of President Ashraf Ghani and his incompetent advisors.
The second most important explanation for the Pakistani Taliban groups' inability to stage large-scale militant and terrorist attacks inside FATA and the rest of Pakistan, as is partially mentioned above, is the collapse of their ranks and files. There are two important reasons for it. Firstly, after the death of ferocious but capable Taliban commanders, like Baituallah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud and suicide master trainer, Qari Hussain, the command vacuum which was created within the Taliban could not be filled by the likes of the current TTP head, Fazulullah, and others. It is important to note that all the three slain TTP commanders were killed in the United State CIA-operated drone attacks, which without any doubt have been instrumental in weakening the ranks and files of the TTP and paving the way for Pakistan military ground and air operations in FATA and Waziristan. Secondly, the military offensive by Pakistan proved a final straw on the back of the encumbered Taliban camel.
Now with the situation that the military offensive has been quite successful in NWA and elsewhere in FATA and the command and control structure of the Taliban has also been given huge blows, the very important question is that whether the TTP and its affiliates have the capacity to make a comeback and whether they have a strategy in this regard. Insofar, as the comeback of the Pakistani Taliban group is concerned, there is obviously the wish to do so; however, one does not think that they have any viable strategy in this regard. On the other hand, the TTP despite its shattering has the capacity to revive itself particularly with the support of the Afghan and Indian state apparatus. This is the most important security challenge of Pakistan in the unfolding situation. How Pakistan meets this challenge needs to be seen. But with the military high command, led by Chief of Army Statff General Raheel Sharif, is clear that military operations would continue till the last terrorist is eliminated and there is also a timeframe in this regard. It is hoped that Pakistan would successfully achieve the task. This is also very important as the most significant economic project for Pakistan for decades, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is in the implementing stage and enemies of Pakistan have been trying to sabotage the project by staging militant and terrorist attacks in Pakistan.
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